How are basketball fans betting the Final Four? Insights from Hard Rock Bet

The Final Four is the culmination of months of college basketball and the 2025 rendition promises to be everything that both fans and sports bettors could hope for. All four #1 seeds have advanced to the prestigious semifinal for the first time since 2008, and are set to square off later today in San Antonio for the right to play for an elusive National Championship. With just three games to go in the 2025 season, Hard Rock Bet has pulled some of its most compelling Final Four betting insights from the data on hand.

Futures: Make way for the favorites

The 2025 NCAA Tournament field was officially set on Selection Sunday, March 16th, and since that date Florida has received the most bets to win the National title. Now, Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sportsbook in Florida, so it’s not surprising to see a top-seeded Florida squad drawing betting attention.

• 27% of NCAA tourney futures placed since Sunday, March 16, have been on Florida to win it all

The overall top-seed in the tournament, Duke, ranks second, with 20% of overall tickets over the same time period, while Auburn rank third with 6.5%, and Houston rank fourth with 6%. The four most-bet teams over the duration of the tournament are still alive with a chance to hit.

In case you were wondering, the next most popular teams were St. John’s (5%), Michigan State (4.7%), Tennessee (4.1%), Alabama (3.7%), and Michigan (2.3%). Oh, and Arkansas rounds out the top ten at 2%… with 84% of those bets flowing in after their second round win over St. John’s.

Betting the Final Four: Duke takes charge

The Final Four was set last Sunday, March 30th, and since we’ve known who was headed to San Antonio the trends have changed quite a bit, with Hard Rock Bet players favoring Duke… by a lot.

• 45% of bets since the Sunday, March 30, have been on Duke to win the National Championship

Florida ranks second with 28% of the overall bets, with Auburn (15%) and Houston (12%) bringing up the rear.

Breaking down the National Semi-Finals

The moneyline, spread, and over/under are the three of the most common ways to bet on individual games. Let’s dive into the numbers for Saturday’s pivotal Final Four matchups.

#1 Florida (-2.5) vs #1 Auburn

Florida (34-4) take on Auburn (32-5) in the first Final Four matchup of the night. Florida knocked off Auburn 90-81 in a pivotal SEC showdown back in February, but the 2.5 point spread indicates that the rematch could be a close one.

• 76% of the moneyline bets so far on Hard Rock Bet have been on Florida to win outright.
• 74% of the spread wagers have been placed on Florida to cover the 2.5 point spread.
• 58% of over/under bets have been placed on the over, which is currently set at a tantalizing 160 points.

#1 Duke (-5) vs #1 Houston

Duke (35-3), the top seed in the tournament, face off against Houston (34-4) in the second game of the night in San Antonio. After a 20-point victory over #2 Alabama in the Elite 8, Duke is riding high – and bettors are feeling it.

• 91% of moneyline bets so far have been placed on Duke to win.
• 79% of spread bets are on Duke to cover the 5 point spread.
• 83% of over/under wagers are on this one to go over the 136.5 point total.

Notable bets on the Final Four

Hard Rock Bet has been accepting wagers all year… the following are some of the most intriguing (at the time of publication):

• $70,000 bet on Duke -5 vs Houston
• $45,000 bet on Duke moneyline vs Houston
• $20,000 bet on Florida -2.5 vs Auburn
• $250 bet on Florida at +6000 from back in November
• $5,363 bet on Auburn +2.5 vs Florida
• $6,900 bet on Houston +5.5 vs Duke
• $2,500 bet on Houston moneyline vs Duke

Parlays to watch

Parlays and SGPs are still in play for the two-game Saturday slate. Hard Rock Bet has taken:

• $5 parlay that could win $168,000 if Duke wins
• $10,000 bet on Duke + Florida moneylines
• $7,000 bet on Duke + Florida spreads
• $6,000 bet on Duke + Auburn moneylines