Last week we wrote about the Tampa market showing up in support of the Bucs, but with Florida’s last remaining team bowing out in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs, who would Florida bettors put their money behind? Spoiler alert: there’s a lot of purple on the map now. Florida sports bettors from across the state have been betting on the Super Bowl – and they like the Ravens.
Hometown hero?
Since advancing to the Divisional Round with a win over the Steelers last week, the Ravens – as of Friday night – are the most-bet team to win the Super Bowl on Hard Rock Bet despite having one of the most difficult roads to the Big Game. In particular, counties in both Tampa and Miami have flipped their support to Baltimore this week.
The Ravens are a 1 point favorite in the Divisional Round, but have to go on the road and take on the Bills on a frigid Sunday night in Buffalo… and if they win, the back-to-back champion Kansas City Chiefs may await in the AFC Championship game for a chance to play in the Super Bowl.
So what’s the draw in betting Baltimore given the difficult path ahead? While we don’t now for sure, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is a Florida native, having grown up in South Florida. Could the state be rallying behind one of their own? Or are Floridian’s backing the Ravens simply because they don’t want to bet on the Bills, an AFC East rival of the Miami Dolphins, to reach the promised land.
Following behind the Ravens are the Lions, the #1 seed in the NFC, and the Chiefs who are going for their Super Bowl three-peat.
Anytime (TD), Anywhere
Anytime touchdown markets are among the most popular NFL bets and Hard Rock Bet has received its fair share for the Divisional Round. Unsurprisingly the three alpha running backs that are suiting up this weekend are the top 3 most-bet anytime TD markets:
- Derrick Henry
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Saquon Barkley
Other Divisional Round props drawing noticeable attention include:
- Isiah Pacheco over 39.5 rushing yards
- Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 touchdown passes
Game by game: Divisional Round betting
Let’s run through the weekend, game by game.
Note: all betting lines and data were pulled on Friday, January 17, but are subject to change.
Texans vs. Chiefs betting insights
The Texans and chiefs kick off the Divisional Round at 4:30pm ET on Saturday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium with the Chiefs looking to win their third consecutive title.
- 82% of moneyline bets are on Kansas City to win the game outright
- 57% of spread wagers have the Chiefs covering the 8.5 points.
- 71% of bets are on the over/under for the game going over the 41.5 point total
Commanders vs. Lions betting insights
The Commanders and Lions will meet at 8:00pm ET at Ford Field, each vying for a ticket to the NFC Championship game.
- 81% of winner bets are on the Lions to advance
- 56% of spread bets are on the Lions to cover the 9 point spread
- 51% of bettors are wagering on the game going over the 55.5 point total – the highest of the weekend by some margin
Rams vs Eagles betting insights
The Rams were dominant on Monday night against the Vikings… their reward? A trip to Philadelphia and the 15-3 Eagles – the #2 seed in the NFC.
- 72% of moneyline bets are backing the Eagles to win the game
- 51% of spread wagers, however, are backing the Rams to cover the 6 point spread
- 61% of bets on the point total are on the game to go over its 43.5 total.
Ravens vs Bills betting insights
The final game of Divisional Weekend is the most anticipated matchup of the season to date. The 13-5 Ravens visit the 14-4 Bills, each led by a deserving MVP candidate in what could be an instant classic. How are Hard Rock Bet players betting it?
- 56% of bets are on the Ravens to win the game outright on the road
- 55% of those betting the spread are taking the Ravens to cover the 1 point
- 57% of over/under bets are, unsurprisingly, expecting fireworks and the game to go over the 51.5 spread
The other playoff
The NFL playoffs aren’t the only important football to bet on . The expanded College Football playoff has reached the final round as Ohio State and Notre Dame get ready to face off for all the marbles on Monday night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.
- 66% of bets are on Ohio State to win outright
- 56% of bets are on Ohio State to cover the 8 point spread
- 70% of bet are on the over of 45.5 points
Local bias
Interestingly enough, each team’s home state is showing their support. In Ohio 72% of the moneyline wagers are on Ohio State to win, while 73% of spread wagers are backing the hometown team to cover.
By contrast, our bettors in Indiana are also showing love to the locals with 56% of moneyline bets on Notre Dame to win outright, and 59% backing the Irish to cover.
Who needs football?
What else are Hard Rock Bet players betting on this weekend? A lot.
- Saturday Night: UFC 311 – Makhachev vs Moicano
- All weekend: The American Express 2025 (PGA)
Your sportsbook for the Divisional Round
Fancy placing a bet this weekend? Hard Rock Bet is accepting wagers in eight states: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. Create your account, no Hard Rock Bet promo code required, and land an exciting new player welcome offer.
All referenced betting lines are subject to change.
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